Northern Virginia Market Update – September 2015

The September data just came out. The good news (again) is that we had the best September in a decade in terms of new contracts. And sold volume is the highest since September 2006.

Closed sales increased by 13.2% from September last year. However, they decreased by 13.7% from August.

Below I’ve pulled up various indicators over the past 3 years to see how the market has evolved.

Inventory Trends

New listings are up 11.1% from August (and 0.8% up from September 2014). So hopefully the closed transactions will increase in October, as buyers evaluate the new offerings. This increase in new listings is fairly typical.

Supply is very slightly up at 3.46 months of inventory (compared to 3.42 in August). Hopefully October will bring some more sellers before things slow down in the winter.

The good news is that the number has been trending higher over the past 3 years. Generally a 6-month supply is considered a “balanced” market, but in this area we’re usually happy with 3. The last time supply stood at 6 months was during the height of the housing crash in 2007.

Pricing Trends

The median sold price across the Northern Virginia market (including Arlington County, Alexandria City, Falls Church City, Fairfax City, and Fairfax County) decreased $11,000 from the previous month to $479,000. This represents a 2.2% drop. It looks like $509,000 (achieved in June) will be the peak for 2015.

Sellers remain in charge with homes selling at 97.8% of list price. This is exactly the same as in August. You could say things are better than 2013 when April, May and June all saw sellers getting 100% of list price. I’m not sure buyers should break out the champagne just yet. These are still very strong selling ratios.

Days on Market

The median days on market increased to 31 from August when it stood at 29. This also represents a 14.% increase from September last year. So maybe the market is trying to reach a better balance between supply and demand. Let’s see how the winter months shake out.

Next Steps

Overall, this is still a great time to be a seller. However, buyers are getting very low interest rates, which helps offset a little the tight inventory conditions and subsequent competitive offers.

Stay tuned for next month’s Northern Virginia market update. If you need more specific data, I’ll be happy to pull it up for you, just contact me below:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *