Northern Virginia Market Update – October 2015

The October data just came out. The good news (again) is that we had the best October in a decade in terms of new contracts. And new inventory is at October 2007 levels.

Closed sales increased by 4% from October last year. However, they decreased by 6.6% from September.

Below I’ve pulled up various indicators over the past 3 years to see how the market has evolved.

Inventory Trends

New listings are down 13.4% from September. They’re still up 1.6% from October last year. This seasonal decrease is fairly typical.

Supply is down slightly at 3.30 months of inventory (compared to 3.46 in September). I was hoping we’ll see a shift towards a more balanced market, but for now this is in vain.

The good news is that the number has been trending higher over the past 3 years. Generally a 6-month supply is considered a “balanced” market, but in this area we’re usually happy with 3. The last time supply stood at 6 months was during the height of the housing crash in 2007.

Pricing Trends

The median sold price across the Northern Virginia market (including Arlington County, Alexandria City, Falls Church City, Fairfax City, and Fairfax County) decreased $18,000 from the previous month to $461,000. This represents a 3.8% drop. I’m not too worried about it yet, but it’s also 0.9% lower than October last year. Too early to tell if it’s the start of a new trend.

Sellers remain in charge with homes selling at 97.7% of list price. This is just 0.1% lower than September. You could say things are better than 2013 when April, May and June all saw sellers getting 100% of list price. I’m not sure buyers should break out the champagne just yet. These are still very strong selling ratios.

Days on Market

The median days on market increased to 34 from September when it stood at 31. This also represents a 17.2% increase from October last year. So maybe the market is trying to reach a better balance between supply and demand. Let’s see how the winter months shake out.

Next Steps

Overall, this is still a great time to be a seller. However, buyers are getting very low interest rates, which helps offset a little the tight inventory conditions and subsequent competitive offers.

Stay tuned for next month’s Northern Virginia market update. If you need more specific data, I’ll be happy to pull it up for you, just contact me below:

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